Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2008 12:46:57 GMT -5
It is a little sloppy, and I could use some additional input from Andy on UF's defense, but other than that it is ready!
Miami versus Florida 2008 Preview
The following is a breakdown of the upcoming game between the all mighty Miami Hurricanes and the often-annoying Florida Gators (hey, I could have said Gaytors). I have broken this game’s analysis in to a position by position breakdown, and an offense versus defense basis.
Quarterback: Tim Tebow is the defending Heisman Trophy winner and a dual threat QB. He is as dangerous running up the middle as he is hitting the edges, and has the ability to fake the run then throw at the last second. Tebow has been held in check by opposing coaches using zone blitzes and getting to Tebow, but that is a tall order for a young Miami defense. Leading the Hurricanes is red shirt freshman Robert Marve. Marve seems to have the confidence and poise that is beyond his years, but he will need more than that to win in the Swamp. Miami will also play true frosh Jacory Harris in this game. Harris throws very well on the run, and is familiar with a lot of our young receivers. Still, if he plays too much that is a sign that Marve has not been playing well, and that means trouble. Significant edge: UF.
Running back; Miami may have the best RB tandem in the nation, especially after watching Spiller and Davis tank against Bama. Javarris James is a hard-nosed runner that has an extra gear when needed. Getting as many reps as James is sophomore Graig Cooper. Cooper is one of the fastest backs in the country, and Miami will split him out once in a while in the slot as well. Running the ball for the Gators will be Chris Rainey, Emanuelle Moody and Kestahn Moore. Percy Harvin runs the ball at times as well, but he will be covered in the WR section. Rainey is an explosive back that can take it to the house, but he is a smaller back and does not have much experience. The same goes for Jeffrey Demps, Moore and Moody. They are all talented backs, but neither of them has played in a game like this. Brandon James gets an occasional carry as well, but I am guessing he will be mostly a special teamer and slot guy in this game. If they run the ball well Florida wins, but I see them being bottled up by Miami’s defense. Moderate edge: Miami
TE: As far as I know UF does not use their TE much, and neither did Miami last year. Still, Dedrick Epps is an occasional weapon for Miami. Slight edge: Miami
WR: UF will be hurting a little here as Cornelius Ingram is out for the year, but there is still plenty of talent at this position. Percy Harvin is possibly the most dangerous player in the nation, and if healthy he will get the ball on down the field passes, bubble screens and handoffs. Miami needs to contain him if they have a chance to win. Backing up Harvin are a number of talented players, but not many have experience. Riley Cooper, Frankie Hammond, Deonte Thompson and Carl Moore are all talented players, and having a QB like Tebow takes some of the pressure off of them, so they will be a tough match up for a young Miami secondary. Louis Murphy, a homosexual in his spare time, is another player likely to get a lot of reps at the WR spot as well. He is not a burner, but with his size he could be a tough match up for some of Miami’s smaller DB’s. On the Miami side there are also a number of young, talented players, but few of them have experience. Junior Sam Shields is a burner that has had some big games, but has yet to be a consistent threat in the Miami offense. Khalil “Stone Hands” Jones is listed as a starter for now, but I will be very surprised if he sees the field for more than 10 or 15 plays. Leonard Hankerson is a player that has really come on for Miami. He is a big receiver (6’3, 210), and a solid route runner. Expect Miami to go to him in the red zone. Also, this game could be the coming out party for RS Frosh Jermaine McKenzie. He may be Miami’s most talented receiver, and he appears to finally be healthy. After these four guys there is a slew of young talent, and if I had to venture a guess I would say that the two true frosh receivers that play are Aldarius Johnson and Travis Benjamin. Johnson is a big receiver with great hands, while Benjamin is a home run threat with 4.3 speed. I expect to see Miami take a few shots deep to Benjamin to try and loosen up the Florida defense. Thearon Collier played well in the opener as well, and may see some time as well. Slight edge: Florida, mostly because of Harvin
OL: Ok, I have to admit, doing an analysis of the OL would put me to sleep if I went position by position, so I will be brief. UF has one of the better lines out there, and their play may ultimately decide this game. On the Miami side, there is a lot of experience back, but there is one glaring weakness. The right side of the line looked lost against the pass rush last week, and that cannot happen against UF. Moderate edge goes to UF here due to slightly better talent and they seem to play better as a team than Miami does right now. Moderate edge: Florida.
Defense
Ok, here is where I admit I do not know as much about UF as I should, so if there are any omissions or false assumptions, I apologize. UF’s offense gets all the press, and UF has a lot of young players that I have not seen much, so I am only talking about the guys I know.
Defensive Line: This is one area where on paper it would seem Miami has an advantage. UF has several strong defense ends (Dunlap and Cunningham will be a hand full), but UF has some holes at the DT spot. True freshman Matt Patchan got about 25 reps last week, and he is a converted OL, so I am not sure he will have much of an impact. There are a lot of guys that could get the majority of the snaps, but I am still not sold on guys like Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh. I truly believe true frosh Omar Hunter could have made an immediate impact at this position, but last I heard he is still dinged up as well. On the Miami side it all comes down to the DT spot. Last year Miami’s defense looked great until three of our top five DT’s went down with injuries. Leading the charge up front is 320 pound Antonio Dixon. If he can stay healthy and keep his weight down he is a first round pick next year. AD dominated the first five games last year before sustaining a leg injury, and I expect him to be lights out this year after losing 20 pounds. Starting next to AD is the fairly average Joe Joseph. He is a solid player that knows his assignments, but I do not expect him to be on the field too much in this game. He is a decent player, but not a play maker. The first DT off the bench will either be Dwayne Hendricks or Marcus Forston. Hendricks looked very good in 2007 before he went down with an injury. A smaller DT, he is very explosive and maybe the best pass rushing DT Miami has. Marcus Forston was the #1 DT in the nation last year at Miami Northwestern, and should start to make his presence felt in this game. He took a little while to adjust to the college level, but he looked great last week, and should only continue to get better. The only other DT I could see getting on the field is Micanor Regis. He is a true frosh as well, but is a load (6’3, 320), and has been here since the Spring. He has impressed the coaches and he could be used to give some of the other DT’s a breather if needed. As for Miami’s DE’s, I cannot tell if this is a position that excites me or scares the hell out of me. There is a lot of talent there, but a lot of it is young en inexperienced. Leading the way is senior Eric Moncur. He is an explosive DE that plays both the run and the pass well. His mother just passed away last week though, so I am wondering how much his mind will be on the game. On the other side super soph Allen Bailey finally appears healthy and ready to make an impact. Bailey is a physical freak (6’4, 285, 7% body fat) and coaches say he was unblockable in the Spring. Still, he is coming off an injured pectoral muscle, so I am guessing he plays no more than half the game. Backing these two up are three players I am very excited to see play, but again, they do not have a wealth of experience. Steven Wesley is an explosive pass rusher, and has looked good in Fall practice. I also expect to see true frosh Marcus Robinson get some chances out there, especially in pass rushing situations. MR is a long, lean DE that can flat out get around the corner and make plays. The real wild card here is Spencer Adkins. A LB for his first two years at The U, he has been converted to DE and had two sacks last week. He had a strong, compact frame (6’1, 245), and runs a 4,4 forty, so he could turn out to be the perfect guy to chase Tebow around from the edge. Lastly, Adewale Ojomo could also see some time in pass rushing situation, but in my opinion he has fallen off a little since being named Scout team Defensive POY last year. Slight edge: Miami
Linebacker: This is a real wild card for both teams. I would give Miami the edge at depth, but a lot of our depth comes from guys that I do not care if they ever see the field again. Glenn Cook is not the most talented LB Miami has, but he is the leader on the defense, and is the only guy I trust out there to get the young guys in position. Too many times last year Miami’s LB’s looked lost in coverage, and having Cook back should help that. Starting along side cook should be Colin McCarthy and Daryl Sharpton. I like DS a lot, and he is one our best cover LB’s. I see him being on the field a lot, especially when Miami needs someone to cover a TE or RB. McCarthy is still a mystery to me. He is a solid tackler and has a knack for making big plays, but he is awful in coverage, and that will be a key role for the LB’s this week. True frosh Sean Spence (the next coming of Jon Vilma) has been pushing CM all year for his job, and was the best defensive player on the field last week. I expect him to be on the field for a majority of the game. Backing these guys up will be Romeo Davis (please don’t play) and two very talented freshmen in Arthur Brown and Jordan Futch. Brown is a physical freak as well, but has had a tough time picking up Bill Young’s schemes, so I am not sure how much he will get out there. Futch is another talented kid that has a good head for the game, but I am not sure this is the game to find out if he can play.
As for Florida, Brandon Spikes is one of the best middle backers in the nation. He is a monster against the run and a solid tackler. AJ Jones and Dustin Doe are solid players on the outside, but I have not seen them play too much either. Without having a real read on this group I am going to call this one even. Miami appears to have more depth, but UF clearly has the best single LB on either team. Edge: Even
Defensive back: Other than the OL this may be the group that has the most impact on this game. Miami’s DB’s will need to play a great game to both cover UF’s speedy players, and come up and make tackles in the running game. On the UF side there is a lot of talent, but yet again not a lot of experience. I have a feeling if Miami can establish the run they will use it to set up the play action pass and test UF’s young secondary. From what I have seen UF will rotate a lot of guys in their secondary, as will Miami. CB’s Joe Haden and Wondy Pierre-Louis will share time with youngsters Jaques Rickerson and Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins is only a freshman, but he is a talented, physical CB that I think will start by the end of the year. Rickerson and Haden both played well last week, especially Haden who is in his first full year at CB. As talented as these guys are, they are still very young, and I can see Miami testing them early and often. At the safety spot for UF are two playmakers in Major Wright and Ahmad Black. Wright is a hard hitter who in the past has struggled against the pass, but defenses have to account for him on every play. Ahmad Black is a smaller safety but he had a huge week against Hawaii, and that should go a long way towards giving him confidence for the rest of the season. The only other UF safety I am familiar with is Will Hill. He is only a freshman, but from what I have seen of him he could have an impact similar to what Kenny Phillips had at Miami and Myron Rolle had at F$U as true frosh. He may be the most athletic defender on either team. This is a group that if Miami plays its cards right can take advantage of though. I have seen this young group gamble a lot, and hopefully Miami can take advantage of their aggressiveness.
In the secondary for Miami there is a good mix of veteran leadership and young talent, but this group is still a bit of a question mark. They looked bad at times last year, especially in man press coverage, and that is a rarity for Miami CB’s. Bringing in Bill Young and his zone blitzing schemed should take some pressure off the DB’s and allow them to freelance a little more than they were allowed to do under Tim Walton’s system. As of right now it looks like the starting CB’s will be senior Bruce Johnson and junior Chavez Grant. BJ is supposedly our best cover corner, but he has been pretty up and down at Miami. From what I hear he has his head on straight this year and should be a shut down corner for Miami…but I will believe it when I see it. Grant is a solid player as well. Not a burner by any stretch, but he is a very solid cover corner that tackles well. He is also good at cutting off routes on short passes, something he will need to excel at this week. Backing these two up and playing the nickel spot will be sophomore Demarcus Van d**e and true frosh Brandon Harris. DVD was our best CB last year, and I am still no sure why he is not starting. Still, as much nickel as Miami will have to play this year he will still get a lot of time. Brandon Harris has had an excellent Fall, and appears ready to make an immediate impact. He is a solid cover corner and a very good tackler as well. This game will be a big test for him though, especially if he plays a lot of rover and has to account for Tebow. Thirty fifth year senior Carlos Armour could also see some time. He is a physical monster, but has never put it all together at Miami. At the safety spot Miami is thrilled to have the services of Anthony Reddick back. AR started as a true frosh, and looked like he was going to be the next great safety at Miami, but two knee injuries have stalled his career. He is the best play maker Miami has on defense as he is both a headhunter and a threat to pick off any pass over the middle. Him staying healthy this year is a priority for Miami as he is a true difference maker in the secondary. Starting next to AR is a bit of a surprise in sophomore JoJo Nicholas. Many had thought that seniors Randy Phillips or Lovon Ponder would be the top candidates for this spot, but Nicholas had a great Spring and Fall. A rangy safety with decent hitting power, Nicholas should have a big year cleaning up for the LB’s. Ponder and Phillips are solid back ups, especially Phillips. He could see a lot of time in nickel and dime sets, and was the only Miami secondary player last year to seem to have a real nose for the ball. Vaugn Telemaque is another true frosh that could see some major playing time as well. He already has NFL size for a safety (6’2, 195), and has really impressed the coaching staff in Fall practice. He can also play the nickel position if needed, but I am guessing that will happen later in the year, not in the Swamp. I am not sure where to give the advantage here. Both teams have a lot of talent, but a lot of it is young as well. Seeing as Miami has a few more veterans, I give them a very, very slight edge.
Special teams: This is one area that scares the hell out of me. UF has more speed than any team in the nation, and Miami will be relying on a lot of young guys to provide kick coverage. Give a guy like Brandon James or Deonte Thompson a small hole and they will be gone. Miami has a lot of guys that can break big plays in the kick return game as well, but other than Graig Cooper nobody on this current team has shown they can do it consistently. I will be happy if Miami can simply break even in the kick return game, especially if Bosher keeps only getting the ball to the 10 yard line on kickoffs. I admit, I have no idea if UF’s kicker is any good, but I cannot imagine him being any worse or more inconsistent than Bosher at FG’s or punts. Significant egde: UF
Coaching: This is another area that scares me a little. Even though I loathe Urban Meyer, he is a great offensive coach and has a lot of experience on his staff. Randy Shannon has done a great job recruiting and trimming some of the fat from the coaching staff, but there are too many UM coaches with less than 2 years together, and that could really hurt in a big game on the road such as this one. Significant edge: UF
Key match-ups:
UF’s offensive line versus UM’s DL. To me this is the key match up to the game. Against Hawaii Tebow looked like he could have read War and Peace in the pocket, and that simply cannot happen this week. UF has one of the best lines in the nation, and Miami’s ability to break them down could ultimately be the key to winning this game or keeping it close. If UF’s line is able to push Miami around and give Tebow time this game will get ugly.
UF’s secondary versus Miami’s TE’s and WR’s. Despite their youth I am very excited about the receiving group that Miami has going in to this game. There are a lot of burners and quite a few bigger receivers for Miami that could give any secondary fits. UF has had a vulnerable secondary for a year or two, and if Miami can take advantage of that this could be a close game. Miami has to be able to hit the hot routes as I expect UF to blitz our young QB’s all day, so these young receivers need to be able to recognize UF’s blitzes and cut their routes off.
Miami’s LB’s versus Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. I know Meyer has said that Tebow will stay in the pocket more, but I still see him running the ball at least fifteen times. Miami’s LB’s, whom have been sloppy tacklers at times, need to wrap Tebow up and not let him get to the second level. Also, I am not sure how effective Harvin will be coming off his injury, but there is nothing scarier in CFB than seeing him come off the edge with the ball. Miami’s LB’s need to stay disciplined and cut him off on sweeps and reverses.
Miami’s kick coverage versus UF’s return game. Again, this is an area that scares me to death. Miami’s kick coverage was the worst I have seen out of them in years in 2007. There has been an infusion of young, fast players to help remedy this situation, but none of them have seen the likes of the speed UF will throw at them. They need to focus more on containing these guys rather than making a highlight reel play.
Ok, prediction time. Most people are not giving Miami much of a chance in this game. I am an eternal optimist, and I still cannot seem to want to predict a Miami win either. However, Miami does have some areas that it has the advantage, and they need to be able to exploit all of them. The running game MUST be established early to control field position and keep Tebow and Co. off the field. High-powered offenses do not like having a limited number of possessions, and if Miami can control the ball (much like Auburn has done to UF) it will go a long way towards wining this game. Also, Miami’s young QB’s have to play virtually mistake free. One big turnover could ignite UF and their crowd, and take Miami out of the game.
So here it is kids, my honest prediction…
UF 34, Miami 23
I rarely predict a Miami loss (even last year), and as much as I love my Canes, there are simply too many factors working against them.
Miami versus Florida 2008 Preview
The following is a breakdown of the upcoming game between the all mighty Miami Hurricanes and the often-annoying Florida Gators (hey, I could have said Gaytors). I have broken this game’s analysis in to a position by position breakdown, and an offense versus defense basis.
Quarterback: Tim Tebow is the defending Heisman Trophy winner and a dual threat QB. He is as dangerous running up the middle as he is hitting the edges, and has the ability to fake the run then throw at the last second. Tebow has been held in check by opposing coaches using zone blitzes and getting to Tebow, but that is a tall order for a young Miami defense. Leading the Hurricanes is red shirt freshman Robert Marve. Marve seems to have the confidence and poise that is beyond his years, but he will need more than that to win in the Swamp. Miami will also play true frosh Jacory Harris in this game. Harris throws very well on the run, and is familiar with a lot of our young receivers. Still, if he plays too much that is a sign that Marve has not been playing well, and that means trouble. Significant edge: UF.
Running back; Miami may have the best RB tandem in the nation, especially after watching Spiller and Davis tank against Bama. Javarris James is a hard-nosed runner that has an extra gear when needed. Getting as many reps as James is sophomore Graig Cooper. Cooper is one of the fastest backs in the country, and Miami will split him out once in a while in the slot as well. Running the ball for the Gators will be Chris Rainey, Emanuelle Moody and Kestahn Moore. Percy Harvin runs the ball at times as well, but he will be covered in the WR section. Rainey is an explosive back that can take it to the house, but he is a smaller back and does not have much experience. The same goes for Jeffrey Demps, Moore and Moody. They are all talented backs, but neither of them has played in a game like this. Brandon James gets an occasional carry as well, but I am guessing he will be mostly a special teamer and slot guy in this game. If they run the ball well Florida wins, but I see them being bottled up by Miami’s defense. Moderate edge: Miami
TE: As far as I know UF does not use their TE much, and neither did Miami last year. Still, Dedrick Epps is an occasional weapon for Miami. Slight edge: Miami
WR: UF will be hurting a little here as Cornelius Ingram is out for the year, but there is still plenty of talent at this position. Percy Harvin is possibly the most dangerous player in the nation, and if healthy he will get the ball on down the field passes, bubble screens and handoffs. Miami needs to contain him if they have a chance to win. Backing up Harvin are a number of talented players, but not many have experience. Riley Cooper, Frankie Hammond, Deonte Thompson and Carl Moore are all talented players, and having a QB like Tebow takes some of the pressure off of them, so they will be a tough match up for a young Miami secondary. Louis Murphy, a homosexual in his spare time, is another player likely to get a lot of reps at the WR spot as well. He is not a burner, but with his size he could be a tough match up for some of Miami’s smaller DB’s. On the Miami side there are also a number of young, talented players, but few of them have experience. Junior Sam Shields is a burner that has had some big games, but has yet to be a consistent threat in the Miami offense. Khalil “Stone Hands” Jones is listed as a starter for now, but I will be very surprised if he sees the field for more than 10 or 15 plays. Leonard Hankerson is a player that has really come on for Miami. He is a big receiver (6’3, 210), and a solid route runner. Expect Miami to go to him in the red zone. Also, this game could be the coming out party for RS Frosh Jermaine McKenzie. He may be Miami’s most talented receiver, and he appears to finally be healthy. After these four guys there is a slew of young talent, and if I had to venture a guess I would say that the two true frosh receivers that play are Aldarius Johnson and Travis Benjamin. Johnson is a big receiver with great hands, while Benjamin is a home run threat with 4.3 speed. I expect to see Miami take a few shots deep to Benjamin to try and loosen up the Florida defense. Thearon Collier played well in the opener as well, and may see some time as well. Slight edge: Florida, mostly because of Harvin
OL: Ok, I have to admit, doing an analysis of the OL would put me to sleep if I went position by position, so I will be brief. UF has one of the better lines out there, and their play may ultimately decide this game. On the Miami side, there is a lot of experience back, but there is one glaring weakness. The right side of the line looked lost against the pass rush last week, and that cannot happen against UF. Moderate edge goes to UF here due to slightly better talent and they seem to play better as a team than Miami does right now. Moderate edge: Florida.
Defense
Ok, here is where I admit I do not know as much about UF as I should, so if there are any omissions or false assumptions, I apologize. UF’s offense gets all the press, and UF has a lot of young players that I have not seen much, so I am only talking about the guys I know.
Defensive Line: This is one area where on paper it would seem Miami has an advantage. UF has several strong defense ends (Dunlap and Cunningham will be a hand full), but UF has some holes at the DT spot. True freshman Matt Patchan got about 25 reps last week, and he is a converted OL, so I am not sure he will have much of an impact. There are a lot of guys that could get the majority of the snaps, but I am still not sold on guys like Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh. I truly believe true frosh Omar Hunter could have made an immediate impact at this position, but last I heard he is still dinged up as well. On the Miami side it all comes down to the DT spot. Last year Miami’s defense looked great until three of our top five DT’s went down with injuries. Leading the charge up front is 320 pound Antonio Dixon. If he can stay healthy and keep his weight down he is a first round pick next year. AD dominated the first five games last year before sustaining a leg injury, and I expect him to be lights out this year after losing 20 pounds. Starting next to AD is the fairly average Joe Joseph. He is a solid player that knows his assignments, but I do not expect him to be on the field too much in this game. He is a decent player, but not a play maker. The first DT off the bench will either be Dwayne Hendricks or Marcus Forston. Hendricks looked very good in 2007 before he went down with an injury. A smaller DT, he is very explosive and maybe the best pass rushing DT Miami has. Marcus Forston was the #1 DT in the nation last year at Miami Northwestern, and should start to make his presence felt in this game. He took a little while to adjust to the college level, but he looked great last week, and should only continue to get better. The only other DT I could see getting on the field is Micanor Regis. He is a true frosh as well, but is a load (6’3, 320), and has been here since the Spring. He has impressed the coaches and he could be used to give some of the other DT’s a breather if needed. As for Miami’s DE’s, I cannot tell if this is a position that excites me or scares the hell out of me. There is a lot of talent there, but a lot of it is young en inexperienced. Leading the way is senior Eric Moncur. He is an explosive DE that plays both the run and the pass well. His mother just passed away last week though, so I am wondering how much his mind will be on the game. On the other side super soph Allen Bailey finally appears healthy and ready to make an impact. Bailey is a physical freak (6’4, 285, 7% body fat) and coaches say he was unblockable in the Spring. Still, he is coming off an injured pectoral muscle, so I am guessing he plays no more than half the game. Backing these two up are three players I am very excited to see play, but again, they do not have a wealth of experience. Steven Wesley is an explosive pass rusher, and has looked good in Fall practice. I also expect to see true frosh Marcus Robinson get some chances out there, especially in pass rushing situations. MR is a long, lean DE that can flat out get around the corner and make plays. The real wild card here is Spencer Adkins. A LB for his first two years at The U, he has been converted to DE and had two sacks last week. He had a strong, compact frame (6’1, 245), and runs a 4,4 forty, so he could turn out to be the perfect guy to chase Tebow around from the edge. Lastly, Adewale Ojomo could also see some time in pass rushing situation, but in my opinion he has fallen off a little since being named Scout team Defensive POY last year. Slight edge: Miami
Linebacker: This is a real wild card for both teams. I would give Miami the edge at depth, but a lot of our depth comes from guys that I do not care if they ever see the field again. Glenn Cook is not the most talented LB Miami has, but he is the leader on the defense, and is the only guy I trust out there to get the young guys in position. Too many times last year Miami’s LB’s looked lost in coverage, and having Cook back should help that. Starting along side cook should be Colin McCarthy and Daryl Sharpton. I like DS a lot, and he is one our best cover LB’s. I see him being on the field a lot, especially when Miami needs someone to cover a TE or RB. McCarthy is still a mystery to me. He is a solid tackler and has a knack for making big plays, but he is awful in coverage, and that will be a key role for the LB’s this week. True frosh Sean Spence (the next coming of Jon Vilma) has been pushing CM all year for his job, and was the best defensive player on the field last week. I expect him to be on the field for a majority of the game. Backing these guys up will be Romeo Davis (please don’t play) and two very talented freshmen in Arthur Brown and Jordan Futch. Brown is a physical freak as well, but has had a tough time picking up Bill Young’s schemes, so I am not sure how much he will get out there. Futch is another talented kid that has a good head for the game, but I am not sure this is the game to find out if he can play.
As for Florida, Brandon Spikes is one of the best middle backers in the nation. He is a monster against the run and a solid tackler. AJ Jones and Dustin Doe are solid players on the outside, but I have not seen them play too much either. Without having a real read on this group I am going to call this one even. Miami appears to have more depth, but UF clearly has the best single LB on either team. Edge: Even
Defensive back: Other than the OL this may be the group that has the most impact on this game. Miami’s DB’s will need to play a great game to both cover UF’s speedy players, and come up and make tackles in the running game. On the UF side there is a lot of talent, but yet again not a lot of experience. I have a feeling if Miami can establish the run they will use it to set up the play action pass and test UF’s young secondary. From what I have seen UF will rotate a lot of guys in their secondary, as will Miami. CB’s Joe Haden and Wondy Pierre-Louis will share time with youngsters Jaques Rickerson and Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins is only a freshman, but he is a talented, physical CB that I think will start by the end of the year. Rickerson and Haden both played well last week, especially Haden who is in his first full year at CB. As talented as these guys are, they are still very young, and I can see Miami testing them early and often. At the safety spot for UF are two playmakers in Major Wright and Ahmad Black. Wright is a hard hitter who in the past has struggled against the pass, but defenses have to account for him on every play. Ahmad Black is a smaller safety but he had a huge week against Hawaii, and that should go a long way towards giving him confidence for the rest of the season. The only other UF safety I am familiar with is Will Hill. He is only a freshman, but from what I have seen of him he could have an impact similar to what Kenny Phillips had at Miami and Myron Rolle had at F$U as true frosh. He may be the most athletic defender on either team. This is a group that if Miami plays its cards right can take advantage of though. I have seen this young group gamble a lot, and hopefully Miami can take advantage of their aggressiveness.
In the secondary for Miami there is a good mix of veteran leadership and young talent, but this group is still a bit of a question mark. They looked bad at times last year, especially in man press coverage, and that is a rarity for Miami CB’s. Bringing in Bill Young and his zone blitzing schemed should take some pressure off the DB’s and allow them to freelance a little more than they were allowed to do under Tim Walton’s system. As of right now it looks like the starting CB’s will be senior Bruce Johnson and junior Chavez Grant. BJ is supposedly our best cover corner, but he has been pretty up and down at Miami. From what I hear he has his head on straight this year and should be a shut down corner for Miami…but I will believe it when I see it. Grant is a solid player as well. Not a burner by any stretch, but he is a very solid cover corner that tackles well. He is also good at cutting off routes on short passes, something he will need to excel at this week. Backing these two up and playing the nickel spot will be sophomore Demarcus Van d**e and true frosh Brandon Harris. DVD was our best CB last year, and I am still no sure why he is not starting. Still, as much nickel as Miami will have to play this year he will still get a lot of time. Brandon Harris has had an excellent Fall, and appears ready to make an immediate impact. He is a solid cover corner and a very good tackler as well. This game will be a big test for him though, especially if he plays a lot of rover and has to account for Tebow. Thirty fifth year senior Carlos Armour could also see some time. He is a physical monster, but has never put it all together at Miami. At the safety spot Miami is thrilled to have the services of Anthony Reddick back. AR started as a true frosh, and looked like he was going to be the next great safety at Miami, but two knee injuries have stalled his career. He is the best play maker Miami has on defense as he is both a headhunter and a threat to pick off any pass over the middle. Him staying healthy this year is a priority for Miami as he is a true difference maker in the secondary. Starting next to AR is a bit of a surprise in sophomore JoJo Nicholas. Many had thought that seniors Randy Phillips or Lovon Ponder would be the top candidates for this spot, but Nicholas had a great Spring and Fall. A rangy safety with decent hitting power, Nicholas should have a big year cleaning up for the LB’s. Ponder and Phillips are solid back ups, especially Phillips. He could see a lot of time in nickel and dime sets, and was the only Miami secondary player last year to seem to have a real nose for the ball. Vaugn Telemaque is another true frosh that could see some major playing time as well. He already has NFL size for a safety (6’2, 195), and has really impressed the coaching staff in Fall practice. He can also play the nickel position if needed, but I am guessing that will happen later in the year, not in the Swamp. I am not sure where to give the advantage here. Both teams have a lot of talent, but a lot of it is young as well. Seeing as Miami has a few more veterans, I give them a very, very slight edge.
Special teams: This is one area that scares the hell out of me. UF has more speed than any team in the nation, and Miami will be relying on a lot of young guys to provide kick coverage. Give a guy like Brandon James or Deonte Thompson a small hole and they will be gone. Miami has a lot of guys that can break big plays in the kick return game as well, but other than Graig Cooper nobody on this current team has shown they can do it consistently. I will be happy if Miami can simply break even in the kick return game, especially if Bosher keeps only getting the ball to the 10 yard line on kickoffs. I admit, I have no idea if UF’s kicker is any good, but I cannot imagine him being any worse or more inconsistent than Bosher at FG’s or punts. Significant egde: UF
Coaching: This is another area that scares me a little. Even though I loathe Urban Meyer, he is a great offensive coach and has a lot of experience on his staff. Randy Shannon has done a great job recruiting and trimming some of the fat from the coaching staff, but there are too many UM coaches with less than 2 years together, and that could really hurt in a big game on the road such as this one. Significant edge: UF
Key match-ups:
UF’s offensive line versus UM’s DL. To me this is the key match up to the game. Against Hawaii Tebow looked like he could have read War and Peace in the pocket, and that simply cannot happen this week. UF has one of the best lines in the nation, and Miami’s ability to break them down could ultimately be the key to winning this game or keeping it close. If UF’s line is able to push Miami around and give Tebow time this game will get ugly.
UF’s secondary versus Miami’s TE’s and WR’s. Despite their youth I am very excited about the receiving group that Miami has going in to this game. There are a lot of burners and quite a few bigger receivers for Miami that could give any secondary fits. UF has had a vulnerable secondary for a year or two, and if Miami can take advantage of that this could be a close game. Miami has to be able to hit the hot routes as I expect UF to blitz our young QB’s all day, so these young receivers need to be able to recognize UF’s blitzes and cut their routes off.
Miami’s LB’s versus Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. I know Meyer has said that Tebow will stay in the pocket more, but I still see him running the ball at least fifteen times. Miami’s LB’s, whom have been sloppy tacklers at times, need to wrap Tebow up and not let him get to the second level. Also, I am not sure how effective Harvin will be coming off his injury, but there is nothing scarier in CFB than seeing him come off the edge with the ball. Miami’s LB’s need to stay disciplined and cut him off on sweeps and reverses.
Miami’s kick coverage versus UF’s return game. Again, this is an area that scares me to death. Miami’s kick coverage was the worst I have seen out of them in years in 2007. There has been an infusion of young, fast players to help remedy this situation, but none of them have seen the likes of the speed UF will throw at them. They need to focus more on containing these guys rather than making a highlight reel play.
Ok, prediction time. Most people are not giving Miami much of a chance in this game. I am an eternal optimist, and I still cannot seem to want to predict a Miami win either. However, Miami does have some areas that it has the advantage, and they need to be able to exploit all of them. The running game MUST be established early to control field position and keep Tebow and Co. off the field. High-powered offenses do not like having a limited number of possessions, and if Miami can control the ball (much like Auburn has done to UF) it will go a long way towards wining this game. Also, Miami’s young QB’s have to play virtually mistake free. One big turnover could ignite UF and their crowd, and take Miami out of the game.
So here it is kids, my honest prediction…
UF 34, Miami 23
I rarely predict a Miami loss (even last year), and as much as I love my Canes, there are simply too many factors working against them.
